The most studied Polymarket bot. Trades BTC 15-minute UP/DOWN markets using a mathematical edge that guarantees profit regardless of direction. Here's exactly how it works.
Gabagool22 never predicts whether Bitcoin will go up or down. Instead, it exploits temporary mispricings in Polymarket's binary outcome markets. In these markets, a YES share and a NO share should always sum to $1.00. But emotional traders push prices to irrational levels, creating windows where you can buy both sides for less than $1.00.
The key insight — documented extensively by analyst Michal Stefanow — is that gabagool doesn't buy YES and NO simultaneously. It buys them asymmetrically, at different timestamps, when each side becomes individually cheap. Over time, the combined Pair Cost drops well below $1.00, locking in guaranteed profit.
From December 2025, reconstructed from on-chain data:
| Side | Shares | Avg Price | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| YES | 1,266 | $0.517 | $654.89 |
| NO | 1,294 | $0.449 | $581.45 |
| Pair Cost | $0.966 | $1,236.34 | |
| Payout | $1.000 | $1,294.98 | |
| Profit | +$58.64 (4.7%) | ||
One trade, ~12 minutes, risk-free $58.64. The bot runs dozens per hour.
Estimated from on-chain volume
In 15-minute BTC markets, prices swing based on short-term sentiment. When BTC drops $200 in 30 seconds, retail traders panic-sell YES, pushing it below fair value. The bot only cares that YES became cheap.
15-minute timeframes mean higher emotional volatility. Traders overreact to small moves. This creates more frequent and larger spreads for the bot to capture compared to 1h or 4h markets.
These mispricings last seconds, not minutes. Gabagool monitors the orderbook via Polymarket's CLOB API and executes within milliseconds. No human can consistently capture these manually.
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